The Wall Street Journal
Consumer expectations for U.S. home prices perked up in December, according to a monthly survey from mortgage market firm Fannie Mae.
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http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/01/09/survey-mood-improves-on-home-prices/?mod=WSJBlog&mod=WSJ_Real Estate_BLOGSDEVELOPMENTSFEED
CoreLogic recently released its November Home Price Index report, which shows that home prices in the U.S. decreased 1.4 percent on a month-over-month basis, the fourth consecutive monthly decline. According to the Index, national home prices, including distressed sales, also declined by 4.3 percent on a year-over-year basis in November 2011 compared with November 2010. Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 0.6 percent in November 2011 compared with November 2010 and by 1.6 percent in October 2011 compared with October 2010. Distressed sales include short sales and REO transactions.
Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to November 2011) was -32.8 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -23.1 percent.
Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, 77 are showing year-over-year declines in November, three fewer than in October.
Americans’ attitudes on a variety of issues are marginally better than one month ago, according to results from Fannie Mae’s December National Housing Survey. Despite overall low levels of optimism among Americans, consumer sentiment trended in a positive direction in the final months of 2011.
Americans who say the economy is on the right track rose by 6 percentage points since November, while the percentage who say the economy is on the wrong track dropped by 6 percentage points. When asked about housing, more Americans expect home prices to to increase compared to November and, on average, Americans expect home prices to increase by 0.8 percent over the next year, up from an expected 0.2 percent increase last month.
Highlights of the survey include:
The number of delinquent mortgages in November rose to 8.15 percent from 7.93 percent in October, according to a report from Lender Processing Services.
That delinquency rate as a percentage of the LPS database of 40 million mortgages declined nearly 10 percent from a year earlier. About 4.14 million homes were 30 or more days past due in November, with about 1.81 million properties more than 90 days past due.
LPS considers a mortgage delinquent when it’s at least 30 days in arrears but not in foreclosure. The company recorded 6.26 million homes either delinquent or in foreclosure last month.
National mortgage loan delinquencies – the ratio of borrowers 60 or more days past due – are expected to decline to approximately 5 percent by the end of 2012 from just under 6 percent at the end of 2011, according to TransUnion’s annual forecast.
After six consecutive quarterly declines between Q4 2009 and Q2 2011, 60-day mortgage delinquencies are expected to rise through Q1 2012, peaking at 6.02 percent. TransUnion forecasts mortgage delinquencies, a statistic generally considered a precursor to foreclosure, to decline for the last three quarters of 2012.
The expected mortgage delinquency decline in 2012 would follow recent yearly trends, including an expected 7 percent decrease by the end of this year and a 7 percent reduction in 2010. This is in contrast to more than 50 percent year-over-year increases between 2006 and 2009.
