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The long-predicted double-dip in housing has begun, with cities across the country falling to their lowest point in many years, data released Tuesday showed.

Prices in 20 major metropolitan areas fell 1 percent in November from October, according to the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index. The index is only 3.3 percent above the low it reached in April 2009 and has fallen fell 1.6 percent from a year ago.

“A double-dip could be confirmed before spring,” the chairman of S.&P.’s index committee, David M. Blitzer, said.

Eight of the 20 cities in the index fell to new lows for this cycle, including Atlanta; Charlotte, N.C.; Portland, Ore.; Miami, Seattle; and Tampa, Fla. Only a handful of places — essentially California and Washington — saw prices rise.

Analysts said the declines would continue even if they would be nowhere near as intense as in 2007 and 2008.

“The enormous supply overhang of existing homes (particularly factoring in all those in foreclosure or soon to be) promises to keep pressure on prices for some time,” Joshua Shapiro, the chief United States economist of MFR Inc., said.

The housing market, which usually leads the economy out of a recession, is holding it back this time. New home sales are in the doldrums and mortgages are hard to come by. Government programs have stanched the bleeding but do not provide permanent relief.

In some cities, the decline over the last year was quite sharp.

Prices in Atlanta and Chicago fell more than 7 percent, exceeding even the drops in the perennially troubled Detroit and Las Vegas.

The Case-Shiller Index is a three-month average of prices. One hopeful sign is that on both a seasonally adjusted and an unadjusted basis, the declines measured in November were less than in October.

The 20 cities fell 0.5 percent on seasonally adjusted basis in November after a 1 percent drop in October.

Not long ago it looked like the housing market was on the mend in most major U.S. metropolitan areas. But now prices are falling fast again in many. Foreclosures and vacant homes lingering on the market are depressing prices, and the home buyer tax credit that expired in July is sorely missed.

In September home prices fell in 18 of the 20 metro areas tracked by Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller composite home price index. That was worse than August, when 15 of the top 20 cities were down month-over-month.
In Pics: Cities Where Home Prices Are Falling Dangerously
“There is a large supply of houses on the market,” says David Blitzer, chair of the index committee at Standard & Poor’s. “And further, hidden supply due to delinquent mortgages, pending foreclosures or vacant homes.”

Of America’s largest urban housing markets, Cleveland seems to be deteriorating the most. Home prices in Cleveland dropped a frightening 3% in September alone, according to S&P/Case-Shiller, and are now 1.9% lower than they were a year ago. Like much of the rest of Ohio, Cleveland hasn’t found replacements for the manufacturing jobs lost over the past decade starting from the 2001 recession. The unemployment rate in Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland, was 9.2% in April. These days it’s at 9.7%.

Zillow’s real estate research unit concurs that home value depreciation began to accelerate again in September across the country; in a new report it projects that U.S. homes will turn out to have declined in value by a total of $1.7 trillion in 2010. Even the biggest cheerleaders for residential real estate are pessimistic. The National Association of Realtors recently predicted that homeowners could expect little, if any, increase in home values nationwide in 2011.

But the statistical warning signals are flashing brighter in some cities than others. For example, in Minneapolis, home prices have retreated for three straight months, most recently declining by 2.1% in September, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index. The unemployment rate in the Minneapolis area is a pretty decent 6.7%, but it has increased from just 6.1% in May.

In Portland, Ore., where the economy has performed poorly and private-sector job growth has been tepid, housing prices fell by 1.9% in September and are down 3.6% in the last year. In Dallas, the town’s football team isn’t the only thing sinking this fall. Home prices in Dallas fell by 1.6% in September after sliding 1.2% in August.

Some cities that not so long ago had reason to believe they were in a housing recovery have turned in the wrong direction. Chicago had a nice run of five straight months of housing prices gains between April and August, but prices slid 1.5% in September, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller survey.

5 Cities Where Prices Are Falling Dangerously

No. 1: Cleveland

The nation’s most worrisome housing market saw prices drop a scary 3% in September alone, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller data. Like much of the rest of Ohio, Cleveland hasn’t found replacements for the manufacturing jobs lost over the past decade starting from the 2001 recession. The unemployment rate in Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland, was 9.2% in April. These days it’s at 9.7%.

No. 2: Minneapolis

Home prices have retreated here for three straight months, most recently declining by 2.1% in the month of September alone. The unemployment rate in the Minneapolis area is a pretty decent 6.7%, but it has increased from just 6.1% in May.

No. 3: Portland

In Portland housing prices fell by 1.9% in September, and home prices are down 3.6% in the last year.

No. 4: Dallas

The town’s football team isn’t the only thing sinking this fall. Home prices fell 1.6% in September after sliding 1.2% in August.

No. 5: Phoenix

The residential real estate market in Phoenix has cause for concern, trending downward by 1.5% in September and 1.3% in August.
Click here to see the full list of Cities Where Home Prices are Falling Dangerously

Stephen Bernard and David K. Randall, AP Business Writers, On Tuesday November 2, 2010, 5:45 pm EDT